Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Drop Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Figures

The mean count of daily murders per month in the country has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by fresh government data. Nevertheless, security specialists have warned that homicide numbers may not indicate better countrywide safety.

Marked Reduction in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the leadership in September. This data was provided by the head of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we have seen over these months is remarkably significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, noting that in November the smallest amount of murders were registered for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Violent drug cartel internal conflicts, combined with the government’s heavily militarised efforts to combat the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent years. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate more than 4x greater than that of the United States. However, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 last year. The President has credited her public safety approach for an apparently steeper drop in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President declared: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced collaboration between government departments.

Expert Caution and Data Limitations

However, security experts cautioned that using murder numbers to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is notably true in light of the uptick in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be positive information if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively positive.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same period last year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not useful for estimating the situation of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the resources or the desire to properly recognize and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of daily killings was additionally an issue because it could hide periods when there were especially high levels of murders.

“Employing the daily mean renders spikes of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, per official figures. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

But in spite of these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with extreme bloodshed, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-fueled violence. Last month there was a notable murder of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of young people protested in the capital and throughout the nation to express their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to build a story of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s extremely effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas said.