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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."