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Initially, Donald Trump appeared to embrace a firm approach concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing threats of "significant consequences" during the summer should Putin continued obstructing ceasefire discussions, Trump ultimately imposed major sanctions on the Russian primary petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly hindered Putin's ability to finance his military invasion in Ukraine.

But, through his recently unveiled detailed peace plan for Ukraine, that was drafted by both nations' representatives excluding Ukrainian or EU involvement, Trump has apparently gone back to his pro-Putin approach.

Rewarding Invasion

The former president's proposal would in practice benefit the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's political freedom in peril. Despite strong declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be affirmed", large portions of the initiative in reality weaken that very independence. What represents a Moscow's wish would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his business past, Trump persists to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a simple land disagreement, implying handing Putin a portion of Ukrainian soil will satisfy the president. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not merely about dominating a charred region of economically weakened territory in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's democracy – and Putin's clear intention to destroy it so it no longer functions as an appealing example for the Russian citizens of the democratic government that Putin's increasing dictatorship prevents them.

Land Surrenders

Although keeping in position the already split Ukrainian provinces of these areas, Trump's plan would force Ukraine to surrender the entire Donetsk region. In addition to rewarding the Russian Federation with land that its military have been unable to capture in over a ten years of conflict, this giveaway would make Ukrainian defensive positions critically undermined.

This region is the location of Ukraine's well-known "stronghold system", the well-established military defenses that are a essential impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these fortifications, giving Putin a clear route to the capital in case he later decide to renew the conflict.

Military Reductions

Additionally, in a action that would enable additional conflict more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would force Ukraine to cut the scale of its armed forces from their existing large number personnel to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Significantly, Trump's initiative imposes no similar constraints on Russia's military.

In what appears as a gesture to Putin's attempts to characterize the nation's democratically elected government as radicals, the proposal declares: "Any radical ideology and actions must be opposed and forbidden." Seemingly to highlight this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold elections in this period" of a truce. However, the proposal sets no condition that the Russian leader endanger his dictatorship by conducting votes in his own country.

Security Assurances

Certainly, the plan makes Russia commit not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in regulation its stance of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". However taking into account that Putin has broken equivalent treaties in the previous instances – such as the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government pledged to respect the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a handback of occupied land in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – how should anyone believe Putin on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international security guarantees. While the initiative promises a "decisive coordinated military response" in case Russia resume its aggression, and states that "Ukraine will receive reliable protection assurances", the particulars range from fuzzy to alarming. The proposal would not just prevent Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent Nato members from stationing military personnel on the nation's land, effectively precluding the security presence, presumptively led by European powers, on which Ukraine had been relying to deter Russia from replenishing his weakened military, re-equipping, and reinvading.

International Response

A separate side agreement reportedly would offer Ukraine with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any future "serious, deliberate, and continuous military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack jeopardizing the tranquility of the allied countries." This implies a armed reaction. But different from a capable national defense – the nation's best defense against renewed invasion – the credibility of the parallel accord would hinge on the commitment of Western powers, such as Trump, to respond with force to Putin's hostilities, an action they have {not